PHOENIX PROPERTY CLOSING RATE CLIMBS DRAMATICALLY AS THE AVAILABILITY OF HOMES SEES HUGE DECLINE
Real Estate Weekly Inventory Level Comparison
As of Friday, February 27th, 2009.
Dramatic changes are beginning to take place in our market. The availability of Single Family Detached homes is decreasing, with a drop below 40,000 this week to 39,828. This fact, combined with previous months closings at 5907, left the market supply at 6 3/4 months.
We haven't seen numbers below 40,000 for Single Family Detached homes for sale since March of 2007. May of the same year is the last time we had over 5,900 closings.
There have been no pending sales over the 10,000 mark since June of 2005.
If you read newspapers to keep up with current real estate market conditions, doesn’t it make you wonder where these facts have been misplaced?
Phoenix continues to hold its place as the best market in the Valley presently, at 5 1/4 months. Following are the West Valley at 6 months, and SE Valley at 6 1/2 months.
Sales are still slow in higher end properties, due to the nearly non-existence of realistic financing above conforming amounts of $417,000.
MLS Statistics
Breakdown by Area
Overall Market. Inventories are down 2% from last week. Total of 39828 active listings with 5907 closings in the last month. About an 6 3/4 month supply.
Phoenix. Inventories are down 2% from last week. Total of 9140 active listings with 1753 closings in the last month. About a 5 1/4 month supply.
West Valley. Inventories are down 3% from last week. Total of 10064 active listings with 1675 closings in the last month. About a 6 month supply.
NE Valley.
Inventories are unchanged from last week. Total of 5728 active listings with 328 closings in the last month. About a 17 1/2 month supply.
SE Valley. Inventories are down 3% from last week. Total of 9000 active listings with 1446 closings in the last month. About a 6 1/4 month supply.
Scottsdale over $1m. Inventories are unchanged from last week. Total of 1497 active listings with 34 closings in the last month. About a 44 month supply.
Scottsdale under $1m. Inventories are down 1% from last week. Total of 2491 active listings with 204 closes in the last month. About a 12 1/4 month supply.
ParadiseValley. Inventories are down 1% from last week. Total of 562 active listings wih 15 closes in the last month. About a 37 1/2 month supply.
Showing posts with label real estate market trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate market trends. Show all posts
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Phoenix Real Estate - Are There Advantages to Multi Family Units?
If you are looking to invest in real estate in the Phoenix area, you may
want to consider putting your money into multiple family dwellings.
Considering the current downturn in the economy, it really makes
good sense to invest in this type of housing verses a single family
home. Here is some information that will help explain why this would
be a smart decision.
Creating wealth through real estate investing is something many
savvy business people do. What are the advantages of putting your
money into small residential income properties? Suppose out of 10
units, 2 are vacant. The monthly costs to the investor are much lower
than that of an empty single family home. Make sense?
Here is an example:
Let's say owner "A" invested in a single family home of average size
that normally rents for $1200 with a mortgage of $1000 per month.
This home is now empty, and for one months mortgage the owner is
out $1000. This comes out of his own pocket.
Now, owner "B" has a 6 unit multi family dwelling and each unit rents
for $700 per month. The monthly mortgage on this property to the
owner is $3000. Two units are vacant, which means he will receive
$2800. This only leaves the property owner $200 short of making his
mortgage payment. Now, think about the outcome to you, the
investor. Would you rather have $1000 or $200 coming out of your
own pocket for that months mortgage payments?
This is one of the benefits of investing your money in multiple family
dwellings. You can see why putting your money in a single family
home isn't such a good idea when you can spread the risk among
more units. This helps you to create a more efficient cash flow for
yourself and create future wealth. Can you see how investing in
several multiple dwellings could help secure your financial future?
Owners of multi family dwellings also have plenty of other advantages.
With repairs, for example, you can write off a portion of the cost in
many cases. When you own a single family unit, you get no
immediate tax benefits.
Investing in real estate is one of the best ways to insure that your
future is secure. Real estate and residential properties rarely ever
decrease in value, and tend to increase over the years. Of course,
investing in single family homes is a good decision, but diversify and
put some of your money into multiple family dwellings.
Of course, the negative aspects of owning a multi family dwelling will
come to mind, such as getting calls from tenants with repair and
maintenance problems. This does occur, but it really isn't as often as
you imagine.
The hard and fast facts are that multiple dwellings will insure that you
have a steady income stream that is as recession proof as any
investment you could possibly make. Your family's financial security
depends upon making smart investments, and this is one of the best!
want to consider putting your money into multiple family dwellings.
Considering the current downturn in the economy, it really makes
good sense to invest in this type of housing verses a single family
home. Here is some information that will help explain why this would
be a smart decision.
Creating wealth through real estate investing is something many
savvy business people do. What are the advantages of putting your
money into small residential income properties? Suppose out of 10
units, 2 are vacant. The monthly costs to the investor are much lower
than that of an empty single family home. Make sense?
Here is an example:
Let's say owner "A" invested in a single family home of average size
that normally rents for $1200 with a mortgage of $1000 per month.
This home is now empty, and for one months mortgage the owner is
out $1000. This comes out of his own pocket.
Now, owner "B" has a 6 unit multi family dwelling and each unit rents
for $700 per month. The monthly mortgage on this property to the
owner is $3000. Two units are vacant, which means he will receive
$2800. This only leaves the property owner $200 short of making his
mortgage payment. Now, think about the outcome to you, the
investor. Would you rather have $1000 or $200 coming out of your
own pocket for that months mortgage payments?
This is one of the benefits of investing your money in multiple family
dwellings. You can see why putting your money in a single family
home isn't such a good idea when you can spread the risk among
more units. This helps you to create a more efficient cash flow for
yourself and create future wealth. Can you see how investing in
several multiple dwellings could help secure your financial future?
Owners of multi family dwellings also have plenty of other advantages.
With repairs, for example, you can write off a portion of the cost in
many cases. When you own a single family unit, you get no
immediate tax benefits.
Investing in real estate is one of the best ways to insure that your
future is secure. Real estate and residential properties rarely ever
decrease in value, and tend to increase over the years. Of course,
investing in single family homes is a good decision, but diversify and
put some of your money into multiple family dwellings.
Of course, the negative aspects of owning a multi family dwelling will
come to mind, such as getting calls from tenants with repair and
maintenance problems. This does occur, but it really isn't as often as
you imagine.
The hard and fast facts are that multiple dwellings will insure that you
have a steady income stream that is as recession proof as any
investment you could possibly make. Your family's financial security
depends upon making smart investments, and this is one of the best!
Friday, January 23, 2009
Advantages of Investing in Multi Units
After reading this article and knowing the market place for these units.I decided to publish it. Real Estate in Phoenix Arizona is at the lowest in many years and the multi units are definitely at the lowest. Loans are difficult to obtain for them but they are still out there and with interest rates at their lowest in 37 years, you can afford to take a bit of a hit on the interest rate considering you are also buying at bargain prices.Multi units in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Glendale and surrounding areas are there for the picking.
Advantages Of Investing In Multi Units
By: Charles P.
Submitted: 08:46AM on Tuesday 13 January 2009
The author has permitted the reprinting and redistribution of this article.
See our Terms of Use for more information on reproducing it.
Usually the investors believe that buying single-home units will get them a good foothold in this particular field and they don’t have to invest a huge amount. This is outright a misconception. In a multi-unit investment, you can find more tenants and better cash flow compared to single units or homes. This, in turn, helps to pay off the mortgage on the buildings much faster. And the money which is contributed by the people for the maintenance work helps to take care of the maintenance in an easier way. As the payments made by the tenants every month come to a big amount it always gives you an opportunity to use the leftover money for reinvestment. Thus, it is better to create a strategy and contract a multi-unit property meant for many people. If you are able to increase the number of your multi-unit properties your level of income will rise and you can afford to hire the services of home management companies so your properties are well taken care of. Compared to buying individual family houses, buying multi-apartment houses seems to be more profitable from the point of view of retail, lease as well as wholesale.
There are further advantages of investing in multi-units, which will convince you better why investing in multi-units is one of the best options compared to investment in single units.
Higher cash inflow: When you invest in multi-units you are able to get an access to various streams of potential income instead of just one. Let’s take an example of a 60-unit apartment community or society where you have your occupancy on almost all the sixty units and you earn sixty times more than you could have earned from a single family home. Even if you have only 50 percent occupancy you would still make more than you would have done with single-unit investments.
Services from home management companies: Investing in multi-units will require recruiting someone to manage your property. There are a large number of home management companies that are always ready to respond to your request for maintenance and repair. They can prove to be helpful in getting new renters and can as well help you expel those who don’t pay rent. In this way you can save time and money as well.
Higher profit from selling: Those who invest in multi-units are usually on the lookout for potential buyers to make higher profits. You may not find buyers so easily but when you succeed in finding one you stand to earn a good amount of money. Even if the property gives you only a 10 % margin you will make more money compared to selling a smaller property.
Maintenance at a single location: When you invest in multi-units you have the advantage of maintaining your property at one location. This could prove to be really advantageous when you are to manage the property single-handedly. On the contrary, when you purchase ten single units at ten different locations you will have to do quite a bit of running around to look after each property. Naturally, it will be a pretty tiresome job. Moreover, by investing in multi-units, you will find all your tenants at one place. You don’t have to move frequently from here to there to answer all your tenants' requests.
So, if you are a smart real estate investor, invest in multi-units and make them part of your investment portfolio.
Advantages Of Investing In Multi Units
By: Charles P.
Submitted: 08:46AM on Tuesday 13 January 2009
The author has permitted the reprinting and redistribution of this article.
See our Terms of Use for more information on reproducing it.
Usually the investors believe that buying single-home units will get them a good foothold in this particular field and they don’t have to invest a huge amount. This is outright a misconception. In a multi-unit investment, you can find more tenants and better cash flow compared to single units or homes. This, in turn, helps to pay off the mortgage on the buildings much faster. And the money which is contributed by the people for the maintenance work helps to take care of the maintenance in an easier way. As the payments made by the tenants every month come to a big amount it always gives you an opportunity to use the leftover money for reinvestment. Thus, it is better to create a strategy and contract a multi-unit property meant for many people. If you are able to increase the number of your multi-unit properties your level of income will rise and you can afford to hire the services of home management companies so your properties are well taken care of. Compared to buying individual family houses, buying multi-apartment houses seems to be more profitable from the point of view of retail, lease as well as wholesale.
There are further advantages of investing in multi-units, which will convince you better why investing in multi-units is one of the best options compared to investment in single units.
Higher cash inflow: When you invest in multi-units you are able to get an access to various streams of potential income instead of just one. Let’s take an example of a 60-unit apartment community or society where you have your occupancy on almost all the sixty units and you earn sixty times more than you could have earned from a single family home. Even if you have only 50 percent occupancy you would still make more than you would have done with single-unit investments.
Services from home management companies: Investing in multi-units will require recruiting someone to manage your property. There are a large number of home management companies that are always ready to respond to your request for maintenance and repair. They can prove to be helpful in getting new renters and can as well help you expel those who don’t pay rent. In this way you can save time and money as well.
Higher profit from selling: Those who invest in multi-units are usually on the lookout for potential buyers to make higher profits. You may not find buyers so easily but when you succeed in finding one you stand to earn a good amount of money. Even if the property gives you only a 10 % margin you will make more money compared to selling a smaller property.
Maintenance at a single location: When you invest in multi-units you have the advantage of maintaining your property at one location. This could prove to be really advantageous when you are to manage the property single-handedly. On the contrary, when you purchase ten single units at ten different locations you will have to do quite a bit of running around to look after each property. Naturally, it will be a pretty tiresome job. Moreover, by investing in multi-units, you will find all your tenants at one place. You don’t have to move frequently from here to there to answer all your tenants' requests.
So, if you are a smart real estate investor, invest in multi-units and make them part of your investment portfolio.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Multi Unit Loan Alternatives
In a difficult loan enviroment for investors buying and investors wanting to transfer ownership of a multi unit these days here are possibile alternatives. You can produce creative alternatives and stay in compliance with the lenders and all legal responsibiltes.
Loan Workouts / Modifications / Assumptions – It may be possible to structure sales based on a negotiated agreement with the existing lender. New financing may not be a viable option in the current market. The following points may be considered:
Negotiation with lender – In many cases, the borrower / property owner is not the best person to conduct negotiations with the lender. A qualified real estate broker, mortgage broker or attorney may be best suited to represent the borrower. I am available to work with you and your client to present the best case to support a loan workout or modification based on current market conditions.
Loan Assumption / Modification – A new buyer may agree to assume personal liability and to reduce the principal balance in return for a reduction in the interest rate, a short-term period of interest-only payments, or other loan modification as part of a property acquisition negotiation.
Seller Carryback – The current owner may structure a carryback (subordinate financing) as an incentive for the buyer to complete the transaction. A carryback reduces the cash equity required from a buyer to close a purchase transaction, while enabling the seller to create an income producing promissory note secured by a deed of trust
Loan Workouts / Modifications / Assumptions – It may be possible to structure sales based on a negotiated agreement with the existing lender. New financing may not be a viable option in the current market. The following points may be considered:
Negotiation with lender – In many cases, the borrower / property owner is not the best person to conduct negotiations with the lender. A qualified real estate broker, mortgage broker or attorney may be best suited to represent the borrower. I am available to work with you and your client to present the best case to support a loan workout or modification based on current market conditions.
Loan Assumption / Modification – A new buyer may agree to assume personal liability and to reduce the principal balance in return for a reduction in the interest rate, a short-term period of interest-only payments, or other loan modification as part of a property acquisition negotiation.
Seller Carryback – The current owner may structure a carryback (subordinate financing) as an incentive for the buyer to complete the transaction. A carryback reduces the cash equity required from a buyer to close a purchase transaction, while enabling the seller to create an income producing promissory note secured by a deed of trust
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Loan Modifications and Services
We had an office meeting last week and had a colleague come speak to us and introduce his new plan and business in modification. Avery is someone we have dealt with over the years for loans and I have relied on for investor advise in acquiring loans. One of the his assets is the ability to switch and adjust to make the transaction happen and this has followed him to his new venture.
He is not taking all loans but will look at everything. If he takes on the loan modification, he will guarantee it , You pay him 1900 dollars up front and if he can't get it done he refunds the entire amount and this is in writing. He has attorneys in his network if he has to act quickly to stop a foreclosure. Of interest too is that he is investigating and researching honest, successful credit repair companies to possible be part of his package or at least network. It makes so much sense. If you need a loan modification, you are probably needing a credit repair as well. You might want to visit him at http://www.wefixuglyloans.net/.
He is not taking all loans but will look at everything. If he takes on the loan modification, he will guarantee it , You pay him 1900 dollars up front and if he can't get it done he refunds the entire amount and this is in writing. He has attorneys in his network if he has to act quickly to stop a foreclosure. Of interest too is that he is investigating and researching honest, successful credit repair companies to possible be part of his package or at least network. It makes so much sense. If you need a loan modification, you are probably needing a credit repair as well. You might want to visit him at http://www.wefixuglyloans.net/.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Real Estate Inventory Phoenix, Scottsdale Arizona
Weekly Inventory Level comparison
©2008 Karl Stauffer
As of Friday, 3/28/08
Since February 1st, less than 2 months ago, the Valley wide supply of homes has gone from a 19 1/4 month supply to a 12 1/2 month supply. This has been driven by an over 50% increase in closed sales in that short time. Depspite what we are being told by the media, things are getting much better. I expect this trend of improvement to continue.
Closes in the previous month continue to improve and were up to 3663, moving us a to a supply Valley wide of 12 1/2 months, another improvement over the previous week. Total listings were unchanged at 46172.
All areas of the Valley continue to improve. In the battle for the best markets in the Valley, the SE Valley stays the clear leader at a 10 1/4 month supply. Scottsdale under $1M is at 12 1/2 months in second.
Luxury Markets continue to improve at 25 3/4 months of supply in Scottsdale $1M+, and 29 1/4 months in Paradise Valley
©2008 Karl Stauffer
As of Friday, 3/28/08
Since February 1st, less than 2 months ago, the Valley wide supply of homes has gone from a 19 1/4 month supply to a 12 1/2 month supply. This has been driven by an over 50% increase in closed sales in that short time. Depspite what we are being told by the media, things are getting much better. I expect this trend of improvement to continue.
Closes in the previous month continue to improve and were up to 3663, moving us a to a supply Valley wide of 12 1/2 months, another improvement over the previous week. Total listings were unchanged at 46172.
All areas of the Valley continue to improve. In the battle for the best markets in the Valley, the SE Valley stays the clear leader at a 10 1/4 month supply. Scottsdale under $1M is at 12 1/2 months in second.
Luxury Markets continue to improve at 25 3/4 months of supply in Scottsdale $1M+, and 29 1/4 months in Paradise Valley
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Weekly Housing Inventory AZ
I always look forward to Karl's reporting and the report below shows activity that we haven't seen in awhile and it was so encouraging. Everyone was feeling enthusiasm and a thread of excitement that just maybe we had turned the corner and then for some unknown reason with lots of speculation as to why, it just stopped three weeks ago. Some say it is tax time, some the rates went back up and the list goes on but it certainly did a number on deflating the balloon. Hopefully this is only temporary and we get a zip in our step again.
Weekly Inventory Level comparison
©2008 Karl Stauffer
As of Friday, 2/22/08
Current rate of closings has jumped by over 8% in the last week! Closes in the previous month were up to 2668, which gives us a supply of 17 /4 months, a substantial improvement over the previous week
Current Pendings also continue to increase dramatically. They have increased over 50% in the last 6 weeks from 3323 on 1/11/08 to 5309 this week. They are at the highest level that I have seen since early July 2007, PM (Pre-Meltdown). This will translate in to more closings in the next month. Total Listings remain unchanged at 46069.
Best markets in the Valley continue to be Scottsdale under $1M at a 13 1/2 month supply, followed by the SE Valley at 14 1/4 months supply.
Luxury Markets, by contrast, are at 42 1/4 months of supply in Scottsdale $1M+, and 40 1/2 months in Paradise Valley.
The comparison of current active listing change is based on the previous week’s inventory. Supply numbers are based on the number of closings in the previous month, divided in to the total number of active listings. This data is for Single Family Detached homes only and does not include patio homes, condos, or town homes.
Entire MLS (Maricopa and Northern Pinal county), listing inventories are unchanged from last week. Total of 46069 active listings. Based on current rate of closings, about a 17 1/4 month supply.
200’s area (Central Phoenix). Listing inventories are up 1% from last week. Total of 6539 active listings. About a 19 1/4 month supply.
300’s area (West Valley). Listing inventories are unchanged from last week. Total of 15125 active listings. About an 18 month supply.
400’s area (NE Valley), Listing inventories are up 1% from last week. Total of 7792 active listings. About an 18 3/4 month supply.
500’s area (SE Valley), Listing inventories are unchanged from last week. Total of 11549 active listings. About a 14 1/4 month supply.
Scottsdale over $1m. Listings inventories are up 1% from last week.
Total of 1645 active listings. About a 42 1/4 month supply.
Scottsdale under $1m. Listing inventories are up 1% from last week. Total of 2628 active listings. About a 13 1/2 month supply.
Paradise Valley. Listing inventories are up 1% from last week. Total of 446 active listings. About a 40 1/2 month supply.
I hope this information is useful to you.
Karl Stauffer, Associate Broker
480-515-2202 (office)
karl@sonorangmac.com
The market place is terrific for those wanting to buy- prices that we haven't seen in a very long time and multi family units with equity built in http://www.cactuscountryproperty.com/multiunitandland.htm
Weekly Inventory Level comparison
©2008 Karl Stauffer
As of Friday, 2/22/08
Current rate of closings has jumped by over 8% in the last week! Closes in the previous month were up to 2668, which gives us a supply of 17 /4 months, a substantial improvement over the previous week
Current Pendings also continue to increase dramatically. They have increased over 50% in the last 6 weeks from 3323 on 1/11/08 to 5309 this week. They are at the highest level that I have seen since early July 2007, PM (Pre-Meltdown). This will translate in to more closings in the next month. Total Listings remain unchanged at 46069.
Best markets in the Valley continue to be Scottsdale under $1M at a 13 1/2 month supply, followed by the SE Valley at 14 1/4 months supply.
Luxury Markets, by contrast, are at 42 1/4 months of supply in Scottsdale $1M+, and 40 1/2 months in Paradise Valley.
The comparison of current active listing change is based on the previous week’s inventory. Supply numbers are based on the number of closings in the previous month, divided in to the total number of active listings. This data is for Single Family Detached homes only and does not include patio homes, condos, or town homes.
Entire MLS (Maricopa and Northern Pinal county), listing inventories are unchanged from last week. Total of 46069 active listings. Based on current rate of closings, about a 17 1/4 month supply.
200’s area (Central Phoenix). Listing inventories are up 1% from last week. Total of 6539 active listings. About a 19 1/4 month supply.
300’s area (West Valley). Listing inventories are unchanged from last week. Total of 15125 active listings. About an 18 month supply.
400’s area (NE Valley), Listing inventories are up 1% from last week. Total of 7792 active listings. About an 18 3/4 month supply.
500’s area (SE Valley), Listing inventories are unchanged from last week. Total of 11549 active listings. About a 14 1/4 month supply.
Scottsdale over $1m. Listings inventories are up 1% from last week.
Total of 1645 active listings. About a 42 1/4 month supply.
Scottsdale under $1m. Listing inventories are up 1% from last week. Total of 2628 active listings. About a 13 1/2 month supply.
Paradise Valley. Listing inventories are up 1% from last week. Total of 446 active listings. About a 40 1/2 month supply.
I hope this information is useful to you.
Karl Stauffer, Associate Broker
480-515-2202 (office)
karl@sonorangmac.com
The market place is terrific for those wanting to buy- prices that we haven't seen in a very long time and multi family units with equity built in http://www.cactuscountryproperty.com/multiunitandland.htm
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Kath's Rate News
I thought you might find this of interest and remember “It is a great time to buy!”
Mortgage Bonds have traded wildly up and down over the past six days. So if you like volatility, this market is for you. Mortgage Bonds are now trading lower after this morning's Durable Goods release, which was reported well above expectations. It is known that, the Durable Goods Report is a volatile one, but the 5.2% reading was far above expectations of 1.2% and could signal that business capital investment is picking up or paint the picture that the economy is not as bad as previously thought. This translates to even more guessing about the Fed's decision tomorrow. Will it be a cut of a quarter or a half percent?
The consumer is still feeling pretty confident as Consumer Confidence for January was reported at 87.5, which was stronger than expectations of 87.0. Adding further strength to the report is an upward revision to December's reading from a previously reported 88.6 to 90.6. This morning's stronger than expected report has to raise some eyebrows at the Fed, which starts their two-day meeting today.
The Fed’s interest rate decision and Policy Statement is set for release tomorrow afternoon at 2:15pm ET. At least two former voting Fed members see a half point cut to keep the markets from going back into the sharp decline we had seen just last week. And the futures contract, which is not so good at predicting longer term Fed moves, but very good at the near term move, is pricing in an 86% chance of a 50bp or half percent cut...we see this scenario playing out as well.
If the Fed does cut by 50bp - the long term picture may not be so good for Mortgage Bonds. The Fed has already cut 175bp since September 18th, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 3.5% from 5.25%. And don't forget the 50bp cut in just the Discount Rate back in August. Add in the President's Stimulus Package and another 50bp cut tomorrow and you have a whole lot of ammunition to juice the economy. Remember that it takes 6 to 9 months for the effects of a Fed Move to be realized. And we are barely 4 months past the initial Fed cut. If inflation flames arise, bond prices will suffer later, as the fixed rate of return they generate must yield a number to compensate for higher inflation.
And in watching many so called experts parade in front of the news cameras this morning, it was funny to hear some of the comments. An economist from S&P said that most mortgages are priced off the 10-year Note...scary. Another said the Fed's recent cut (exactly one week ago) has had no effect on housing. Again, this shows how little understanding these individuals have about the way our business works. Do they really think that people see the Fed cut, get in their car, buy a home, get a mortgage, and close within a week?
Note the Floating Bias today - this does not mean to take your eye off the ball as we are already seeing a decline in MBS prices. Watch the windows; I will alert you if things get nasty. This is a good time to get the message out to your clients, who may be waiting on rates to drop further. As always, loan applications never peak at the lowest point for rates...they do so when rates start moving up and clients get off the fence before the train leaves the station. Warn your clients of this common error. It is wise to have your clients in queue, especially those above $417k, but below $625K. This way they can pounce on the lower rates once the conforming limit is raised.
Kathleen ReinertHome Mortgage ConsultantWells Fargo Home MortgageMAC S4153-02020369 N 59th AveGlendale, AZ 85308623.445.2297 Tel602.620.3105 Cell866.254.1668 Fax866.207.6731 ext2297 Toll Freekathleen.reinert@wellsfargo.com http://www.kathleenreinert.com
Mortgage Bonds have traded wildly up and down over the past six days. So if you like volatility, this market is for you. Mortgage Bonds are now trading lower after this morning's Durable Goods release, which was reported well above expectations. It is known that, the Durable Goods Report is a volatile one, but the 5.2% reading was far above expectations of 1.2% and could signal that business capital investment is picking up or paint the picture that the economy is not as bad as previously thought. This translates to even more guessing about the Fed's decision tomorrow. Will it be a cut of a quarter or a half percent?
The consumer is still feeling pretty confident as Consumer Confidence for January was reported at 87.5, which was stronger than expectations of 87.0. Adding further strength to the report is an upward revision to December's reading from a previously reported 88.6 to 90.6. This morning's stronger than expected report has to raise some eyebrows at the Fed, which starts their two-day meeting today.
The Fed’s interest rate decision and Policy Statement is set for release tomorrow afternoon at 2:15pm ET. At least two former voting Fed members see a half point cut to keep the markets from going back into the sharp decline we had seen just last week. And the futures contract, which is not so good at predicting longer term Fed moves, but very good at the near term move, is pricing in an 86% chance of a 50bp or half percent cut...we see this scenario playing out as well.
If the Fed does cut by 50bp - the long term picture may not be so good for Mortgage Bonds. The Fed has already cut 175bp since September 18th, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 3.5% from 5.25%. And don't forget the 50bp cut in just the Discount Rate back in August. Add in the President's Stimulus Package and another 50bp cut tomorrow and you have a whole lot of ammunition to juice the economy. Remember that it takes 6 to 9 months for the effects of a Fed Move to be realized. And we are barely 4 months past the initial Fed cut. If inflation flames arise, bond prices will suffer later, as the fixed rate of return they generate must yield a number to compensate for higher inflation.
And in watching many so called experts parade in front of the news cameras this morning, it was funny to hear some of the comments. An economist from S&P said that most mortgages are priced off the 10-year Note...scary. Another said the Fed's recent cut (exactly one week ago) has had no effect on housing. Again, this shows how little understanding these individuals have about the way our business works. Do they really think that people see the Fed cut, get in their car, buy a home, get a mortgage, and close within a week?
Note the Floating Bias today - this does not mean to take your eye off the ball as we are already seeing a decline in MBS prices. Watch the windows; I will alert you if things get nasty. This is a good time to get the message out to your clients, who may be waiting on rates to drop further. As always, loan applications never peak at the lowest point for rates...they do so when rates start moving up and clients get off the fence before the train leaves the station. Warn your clients of this common error. It is wise to have your clients in queue, especially those above $417k, but below $625K. This way they can pounce on the lower rates once the conforming limit is raised.
Kathleen ReinertHome Mortgage ConsultantWells Fargo Home MortgageMAC S4153-02020369 N 59th AveGlendale, AZ 85308623.445.2297 Tel602.620.3105 Cell866.254.1668 Fax866.207.6731 ext2297 Toll Freekathleen.reinert@wellsfargo.com http://www.kathleenreinert.com
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